Press Statement By DAP Secretary-General And MP For Bagan Lim Guan Eng In Kuala Lumpur On 4.11.2014.<\/p>\n
Is A Revised 2015 Budget Necessary As A Consequence From The 20% Drop In Crude Oil Prices With A New Projected Fiscal Deficit, That Is Higher Than The Projected 2015 Fiscal Deficit Of 3% Of GDP To 3.4% Of GDP?<\/p>\n
DAP hopes that the Finance Ministry can explain the negative impact of the falling crude oil prices on the 2015 budget of RM 273.9 billion, comprising operating expenditure of RM 223.4 billion and development expenditure of RM 50.5 billion. The 2015 budget depends heavily on oil-related revenue.<\/p>\n
In 2013, oil-related revenue of RM 63 billion accounts for 29.5% of total government revenue, comprising tax income and royalties of RM36 billion and Petronas dividends of RM27 billion. According to the Estimates of Federal Government’s Revenue 2015, oil-related revenue is calculated based on crude oil price (Tapis) of USD 110 per barrel in 2014 and USD 105 per barrel in 2015.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Crude oil prices has fallen to a four year low of USD 80-85 per barrel over the past two weeks. According to an estimate reported by The Edge Financial Weekly, every USD 1 per barrel drop in crude oil prices would cost the federal government about RM650 million in revenue. A 10% fall in oil prices will worsen the fiscal deficit by 0.2%, even after accounting for lower fuel subsidies.<\/p>\n
Clearly the estimate of oil price at USD 110 per barrel for 2014 and USD 105 per barrel is overly optimistic and unrealistic. \u200eWith lower crude oil prices by as much as 20% likely to be the new regime, is there a need for fresh budget calculations flowing from reduced oil-related revenue. In other words, a 20% drop in crude oil prices will cause the fiscal deficit to worsen by 0.4% of GDP.<\/p>\n
Budgeting is a dynamic exercise. Prime Minister Dato Seri Najib Tun Razak has a moral obligation and statutory duty to constantly update Parliament, particularly when the basis of the budget is not accurate anymore. Is a revised 2015 Budget necessary as a consequence from the 20% drop in crude oil prices with a new projected fiscal deficit, that is higher than the projected 2015 fiscal deficit of 3% of GDP to 3.4% of GDP?<\/p>\n
— BM Version —<\/p>\n
Kenyataan media Setiausaha Agung DAP dan MP Bagan Lim Guan Eng di Kuala Lumpur pada 4.11.2014<\/p>\n
Adakah kita memerlukan semakan semula Belanjawan 2015 berserta unjuran defisit fiskal yang baru pada 3.4 peratus, yang lebih tinggi berbanding unjuran 3 peratus KDNK sebelum ini ekoran kejatuhan sehingga 20 peratus harga minyak mentah?<\/p>\n
DAP berharap agar Kementerian Kewangan dapat menjelaskan kesan negatif kejatuhan harga minyak mentah terhadap Belanjawan 2015 berjumlah RM273.9 bilion, yang merangkumi RM223.4 belanja pengurusan dan RM50.5 belanja pembangunan. Ini kerana Belanjawan 2015 amat bergantung kepada hasil minyak.<\/p>\n
Pada tahun 2013, hasil minyak berjumlah RM63 bilion merangkumi 29.5 peratus daripada jumlah hasil kerajaan, termasuk pendapatan daripada cukai dan royalti berjumlah RM36 bilion dan dividen Petronas sebanyak RM27 bilion. Menurut Anggaran Hasil Kerajaan Persekutuan 2015, hasil minyak dikira berdasarkan harga minyak mentah (Tapis) pada USD110 segelen pada tahun 2014, dan USD105 segelen pada tahun 2015.<\/p>\n
Harga minyak mentah telah jatuh pada tahap terendah dalam empat tahun, dengan USD80-85 segelen pada dua minggu terakhir ini. Menurut anggaran yang dilaporkan The Edge Financial Weekly, kejatuhan setiap USD1 akan menyebabkan kerajaan kehilangan hasil kira-kira RM650 juta. Kejatuhan sebanyak 10 peratus akan meningkatkan defisit fiskal sebanyak 0.2 peratus, walaupun selepas mengambil kira pemotongan subsidi minyak.<\/p>\n
Jelas, anggaran harga minyak pada USD110 segelen untuk tahun 2014 dan USD105 segelen untuk tahun 2015 adalah terlalu optimis dan tidak realistik. Dengan kemungkinan bahawa harga yang lebih rendah – dengan kadar penurunan sehingga 20 peratus – menjadi standard baru, ada keperluan kepada pengiraan belanjawan yang baru ekoran kurangnya hasil minyak ini. Dengan kata lain, kejatuhan 20 peratus harga minyak mentah akan menyebabkan defisit fiskal memburuk sebanyak 0.4 peratus daripada KDNK.<\/p>\n
Pembelanjawanan adalah hal yang dinamik. Perdana Menteri Dato’ Sri Najib Tun Razak mempunyai kewajipan moral dan tugas berkanun untuk sentiasa memberikan maklumat terbaru kepada Parlimen, terutama apabila asas kepada belanjawan tidak lagi tepat. Adakah kita memerlukan semakan semula Belanjawan 2015 berserta unjuran defisit fiskal yang baru pada 3.4 peratus, yang lebih tinggi berbanding unjuran 3 peratus KDNK sebelum ini ekoran kejatuhan sehingga 20 peratus harga minyak mentah? <\/p>\n
— CN Version —<\/p>\n
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Press Statement By DAP Secretary-General And MP For Bagan Lim Guan Eng In Kuala Lumpur On 4.11.2014. Is A Revised 2015 Budget Necessary As A Consequence From The 20% Drop In Crude Oil Prices With A New Projected Fiscal Deficit, That Is Higher Than The Projected 2015 Fiscal Deficit Of 3% Of GDP To 3.4% …<\/p>\n